Predictive insights with statistical integrity

My fantasy rankings and accuracy reports get too much of the attention.

What people really stay for is a shared love of extracting predictive insights. We don’t just want rankings. We want to understand the real drivers. We want confidence in the reasoning behind our fantasy decisions.

At Subvertadown, my hand-tailored AI reveals what data's most meaningful. And it's broken down so you can easily understand and choose the best odds.

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Freely browse the live examples on this page: guidance for multi-week planning, visuals that explain what causes a high or low ranking, advice on betting lines and timing, and lots of nuggets for your strategy.

$article->photo CINCINNATI, OH - OCTOBER 26: New York Jets quarterback Justin Fields (7) passes the ball during the game against the New York Jets and the Cincinnati Bengals on October 26, 2025, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire)

2025 - Week 9

Strategize who you stream—and plan your “holds” by using 17-week forecasting charts.

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10
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17
AVG
Playoffs
Chargers 9.6 3.6 3.0 - 7.0 5.9 0.8 0.5 6.3 4.6 2.5
Rams 9.2 6.2 0.5 4.8 6.5 3.7 1.6 0.5 6.2 4.4 2.8

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AVG
Playoffs
Lamar Jackson | BAL 22.9 22.9 21.4 22.2 25.2 24.2 24.4 23.1 20.0 22.9 22.5
Patrick Mahomes | KC 21.0 - 20.8 23.1 26.3 21.7 23.0 23.8 23.0 22.8 23.3

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AVG
Playoffs
Cameron Dicker | LAC 9.2 8.8 7.3 - 9.0 9.3 6.9 8.7 8.8 8.5 8.1
Joshua Karty | LAR 9.0 7.4 7.0 8.5 7.8 7.9 7.6 6.0 8.8 7.8 7.5

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Members here mostly care what’s behind the numbers: rigorous models. But the website goes further by also interpreting the reasons behind each recommendation. So try hovering over the tool-tips for deeper explanations, to help you reason your weekly pick.

Quarterbacks

Wk 9 Proj. Stats
Player Matchup
Wk 9
Wk 10
Wk 11
Err.
PaY
RuY
PTD
Int.
Lamar Jackson BAL @ MIA 22.9 22.9 21.4 5.5 252 40 2.2 0.3
Patrick Mahomes KC @ BUF 21.0 - 20.8 6.2 241 29 1.9 0.6
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D/STs

Wk 9 Proj. Stats
Team
Wk 9
Wk 9 Trend
Wk 10
Wk 11
Hold?
Err.
PA
YA
Int.
Sacks
FR
TD
Chargers @ Titans 9.6
- - 4.6 16.6 265 0.9 3.5 0.6 0.15
Rams vs. Saints 9.2
- - 4.9 14.5 281 0.9 3.3 0.7 0.17
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Kickers

Wk 9 Proj. Risk
Player Matchup
Wk 9
Wk 10
Wk 11

Hold? 		Err.
4thD
Missed
Ceil
Fl
DD%
LD%
FG
XP

Impl. score
Cameron Dicker LAC @ TEN 9.2 8.8 7.3 Y 3.1 1.1 0.4 12.6 6.3 45% 14% 2.0 2.5 26.7
Joshua Karty LAR vs. NO 9.0 - - - 3.3 1.1 0.5 12.3 6.2 45% 15% 1.8 3 29.4
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‘Strength of Schedule (SoS) forecasts the difficulty for a team’s, for future weeks. These charts are based on multi-dimensional predictive models, which makes them much more reliable than plain “fantasy points allowed” that you might find elsewhere, if you’re making your roster decisions based on opponents.

Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.

Running Backs

Baseline
Next 4
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AVG
Playoffs
Rams 20.1 0.1 2.0 0.1 -1.8 0.1 -0.2 -0.9 -1.2 -2.5 -0.1 -0.5 -1.3
Titans 16.0 -0.5 0.2 - -0.9 -0.9 0.3 -1.2 0.8 -1.9 2.3 -0.2 0.4

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Wide Receivers

Baseline
Next 4
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AVG
Playoffs
Texans 27.8 0.6 0.0 1.3 0.4 0.6 0.0 -5.4 1.1 2.9 0.1 0.1 1.3
Browns 18.3 -0.6 - -2.5 0.3 0.5 -0.3 1.0 -2.5 -1.3 -0.6 -0.7 -1.5

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Tight Ends

Baseline
Next 4
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AVG
Playoffs
Saints 10.9 -0.9 -1.0 -0.2 - -1.5 -0.3 -0.5 0.6 0.7 -0.1 -0.3 0.4
Buccaneers 7.8 -0.4 - -0.3 -1.2 0.3 0.8 1.3 -0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1

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Betting lines: A portfolio of suggested likely betting options, among spreads and O/Us. In addition to scaling the level of each wager, it also suggests whether to bet near opening or closing.

Bets for Open

Spreads

Original Spreads (Tuesday) and Updates Current Spreads (if placed after Tuesday)
Orig. Pick Orig. Line Opponent Orig. Bet Update Revised Pick? Curr. Line Bet Until Current
Bears -2.5 Bengals $7 - - -2.6 -6.6 $7

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O/U

Original O/U (Tuesday) and Updates Current O/U (if placed after Tuesday)
Home Away Orig. Pick Orig. Line Orig. Bet Update Revised Pick? Curr. Line Bet Until Current
DolphinsTNF Ravens U 49.7 $3 - - 51.3 49.8 $3

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Preview how I turn stats into useful reasoning! The pros-and-cons lists have extracted statistical drivers from key data. This can supplement your kicker choices, no matter what rankings you use!

Even if you're not subscribed for our full ordered rankings, we provide the following pros-and-cons list for all kickers. The reasonings are based on statistical drivers extracted from key data, so the explanations can give you insight into why a kicker is ranked where it is. Regardless of whose kicker rankings you use each week, this should help you make a better informed decision.

Pros Cons
Cameron Dicker LAC @ TEN
  • 4th highest chance of stalling midfield
  • 9th most points expected acc. betting lines
  • 8th least possessions allowed by opponent
  • downgrade to own team offense
Joshua Karty LAR vs. NO
  • 2nd most points expected acc. betting lines
  • 9th highest chance of stalling midfield
  • 4th most unbalanced matchup
  • 3rd lowest accuracy

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View all kickers for this week

D/ST scores are crowd-sourced from your votes, in the D/ST Pick6x6 contest.

D/ST

Week 9

Rams * vs. LAR

9.9

Chargers * vs. LAC

9.6

Lions * vs. DET

9.1

Packers * vs. GB

9.0

Patriots * @ NE

8.9

Texans * @ HOU

8.4
* Indicates Pick 6x6 crowd-sourced projection.
View Full Projections

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Score expectations for all 32 teams, trained to account for all team aspects on both sides of the ball. QBs, D/STs, and Kickers.

Quarterback

Week 9

Lamar Jackson | BAL

22.9

Patrick Mahomes | KC

21.0

Dak Prescott | DAL

20.7

Matthew Stafford | LAR

20.5

Daniel Jones | IND

20.2

Drake Maye | NE

20.2
View Full Projections

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This is the most useful way to think about your kicker’s opportunities! Get unique insight to each kicker’s volumes and likely field positions.

Cameron Dicker

  • More kicking opportunities overall, at all distances.
  • Less likely to take long kicks, despite drives stopping upfield.
  • Bolstered by a floor of RZ opportunities.

How to read this chart

It’s not only the projection that matters! It’s key to consider the range of possible outcomes. My algorithms search for the most similar historical matches and show you what actually happened.

Rams Similar historical matchups

Matchup Year Wk Result
Similar Chiefs vs Raiders 2024 13 3
Similar Eagles vs Commanders 2021 15 6
Boom Seahawks vs Colts 2017 4 22
Bust Chiefs vs Raiders 2024 13 3

Specialized advice for Survivor, based on my own game score models—and my own optimization algorithm. Covers 3 surviving pathways all season!

Path 3A

Week Team
1 PHI
2 SF
3 SEA
4 HOU
5 DET
6 IND
7 GB
8 KC
9 LAC
10 BUF
11 PIT
12 NE
13 BAL
14 TB
15 WAS
16 ARI
17 CHI
Longevity 3.5

Path 3B

Week Team
1 PHI
2 SF
3 SEA
4 HOU
5 DET
6 IND
7 GB
8 KC
9 LAR
10 DEN
11 PIT
12 BAL
13 JAC
14 TB
15 BUF
16 DAL
17 ARI
Longevity 3.7